About six weeks ago, I wrote My Thoughts on the Mets Offseason. My biggest concern was that the luxury tax and the return of Canó’s contract would limit free agent signings to short-term deals. As of this writing, the Mets have signed Max Scherzer to a 3-year deal for $130 million (with an opt-out clause in year 3), Starling Marte to a 4-year deal for $78 million, Mark Canha to a 2-year deal for $26.5 million and Eduardo Escobar to a 2-year deal for $20 million. The two-year deals fit within the framework of my earlier argument, but the Scherzer and Marte deals seem, on their face, to counter any concern regarding the luxury cap implications.
A few of the assumptions I made proved to be wrong, but not because the Mets acted any differently than I suggested, at least initially. I assumed that Conforto and Syndergaard would both get Qualifying Offers, which they did, but I also assumed both would take those offers. Instead, Syndergaard famously signed with the Angels on what is an extremely expensive bet that he will return to form (including forfeiting a draft pick). Conforto has not signed anywhere yet, but he is seeking a multi-year deal and the Mets are betting Marte is an upgrade. I also assumed that the Mets would resign Loup for three to four years at $8–10 million per year. The Angels signed him for two years at $17 million, so that loss really stings.
Let’s look at the current average annual value (AAV) of the new free agent signings against the salary of existing players on the 40-man roster:
Mets Roster w/o Signings: $180 million
Scherzer: $43 million
Marte: $19.5 million
Canha: $13.25 million
Escobar: $10 million
Total: $265.75 million
This may look like the front office is totaling ignoring the luxury tax threshold, but in fact they are being shrewd and deciding that they can exceed it this year (and potentially next year) while still falling below the threshold in the third consecutive year, when it is exceedingly punitive. Their current roster payroll for 2023 is approximately $107 million and for 2024 it is $63.75 million (perhaps less if the opt-out in the third year of Scherzer’s contract is exercised). Long-term deals for home-grown players and arbitration bumps will likely increase those numbers (as will re-signing the likes of deGrom), but the only long-term deal out into the distance for the Mets is Lindor’s.
All indications are that the Mets are not done signing free agents and/or potentially trading to improve the roster. If they re-sign Baez, they face some real inflexibility regarding the luxury tax (and at that point they will blow out my theory entirely). Realistically, Baez and Stroman will walk, as I said in my article six weeks ago. Also, my larger point was that the Mets should sign Scherzer (at $30–40 million per year for two years). It turns out it will cost a little more and potentially include an extra year. Where I allocated $45 million to Syndergaard, Conforto and Loup, the team allocated $42.75 million to Marte, Canha and Escobar.
Look for more one and two-year deals for a reliever, another starter, and perhaps a utility infielder, unless they can find good trade partners for McNeil, JD Davis, and/or Dom Smith to fill those needs.
