The list of 2022 free agents on the Mets includes Stroman, Conforto, Baez, Syndergaard, Loup, Familia, Hill, Villar and Pillar (he has a player option for $2.9 million). The team has about $135 million committed to the existing roster in 2022 (this includes $20 million for Canó), but a number of players are arbitration eligible (including Pete Alonso, Nimmo, Castro, etc.). It is entirely probable that without re-signing any free agents, the salary could jump to $180 million or more. In other words, if the Mets lose every free agent on the team, they would still only see a minimal drop in payroll. Some of you might say “The owner is billionaire; why is this important?” The answer is the luxury tax.
The luxury tax threshold in 2021 was $210 million. The Mets, thanks in part to the Canó suspension, managed to stay below the number at $200 million. Exceeding the cap for a year or two is punitive, but teams have made the decision to do so (Yankees, Dodgers, etc.). Where it gets complicated is that the tax escalates if it is exceeded in consecutive years (20% in year 1, 30% in year 2, and 50% in year 3 and thereafter). There is also a surtax of 12% if the threshold is exceeded by $20 million to $40 million, and if the threshold is exceeded by more than $40 million, the tax increases to a minimum of 42.5% (in the first year) and the team could be penalized by a 10 spot drop in the MLB Draft. Even the wealthiest person in the world doesn’t want to sign players and pay an extra penalty or real money and draft picks in perpetuity, especially when teams like the Rays and Brewers are in the playoff s with payrolls of $70 million and $90 million respectively.
A new CBA may change some of this, but for now we can assume the structure will continue to be similar.
What this means is that the Mets should probably forget about signing any of their free agents that will require a long-term deal in excess of two years (and that will require an average annual salary exceeding $15 million). This most certainly means that Stroman and Baez are gone. Neither is eligible for a Qualifying Offer (which has been set at $18.4 million), so the loss especially hurts because there will be no draft pick compensation. The Mets could, and perhaps should, make Qualifying Offers to Syndergaard and Conforto. Assuming both accept, this will elevate the payroll to about $217 million, putting it over the projected 2022 tax threshold of $210 million. The Mets should also sign Aaron Loup to a long-term deal. Expect that deal to cost $8–10 million per year for three to four years.
This paints a bit of an ugly scenario in that two major contributors to a team that only won 77 games (Stroman and Baez), are leaving and the payroll has somehow increased by $30 million and is now over the luxury tax threshold. However, there is room for hope…
During the second half of the season it seemed as if the Mets offense was the problem, and at times it was, but not to the extent you would think. Prior to the All-Star Break, the Mets were eight games over .500, and scored 3.78 runs per game. After the Break, that number increased to 4.10. That number is still low when you consider that the elite teams score just over 5 runs per game, but it is interesting to see that the number increased. The difference was the numbers of runs scored against the Mets. In the first half that number was 3.67 runs, but in the second half the number jumped to 4.67 runs. Much of that could be attributed to two factors — Jacob deGrom missing the entire second half and Walker pitching poorly after an All-Star first half.
There is reason to believe that the team’s offense can improve, even without re-signing Baez. A number of players, and the new coaching staff should attempt to understand why, performed far below their expected norms. Lindor, McNeil, Conforto, Davis and Smith all underperformed, and there is enough of a performance sample prior to this season to suggest that a normal regression would occur where most, if not all, of these players hit better next season. Even Alonso, who had a great season, significantly underperformed when compared to his last full season, his rookie year. In addition, there are some players in the high minors who look to be close to contributing, such as Lee and Vientos. More significantly, outside of Conforto, there are no real big bats on the market that could be had on short-term deals, let alone a one-year deal.
Pitching is where the Mets may have an opportunity to make a big ticket splash. Max Scherzer, who is 37, still pitching like an ace and is the odds on favorite to win his fourth Cy Young Award, may be willing to sign a short-term deal for a high average annual salary. A full season of deGrom and Scherzer at the top of the rotation makes up for any offensive deficiencies the team may have. A rotation of deGrom, Scherzer, Syndergaard, Walker and Carrasco (with Megill and Peterson in the wings) would dramatically increase the teams playoffs chances.
Assuming Scherzer would sign with the Mets on a short-term deal, it would probably have to be in the neighborhood of $35–40 million per year, meaning the team would be locked to exceed the luxury tax for two years, and have enough salary coming off the books at that time to make a few moves (extending Alonso for example). It is a complicated situation, unfortunately, but with deGrom healthy, this was a first place team in NL East with essentially the same roster. Adding a player like Scherzer is the best hope to add wins within the salary constraints imposed by the prior front office.
